Gooooood Morning from Chicago
Well, that was a lot.
The Padres opened the 2023 season playing 24 games in their first 25 days, including a stretch of 18-straight that (finally) concluded with yesterday’s 7-5 win in Phoenix. As Bob Melvin said after the game, thanks to that run, it feels like we’re 50 games into the season already.
So let’s take a breath for two reasons: one, the Padres got to .500 (12-12) yesterday and have won four of their last five. They will wake up this morning just a half-game out of first place. But you already knew that, so I want to focus on another piece of the puzzle.
Two years ago, I began to develop a theory about the schedule, which, in the spirit of full transparency, is far more anecdotal than it is scientific. But it’s basically that a team can be highly impacted at a given time by its schedule. And I don’t even mean which teams they’re playing.
Rather, it’s about the travel schedule and, beyond that, off days.
I think the thought first popped into my mind just before Memorial Day, 2021. The Padres had a 10 games in 10 days trip that ran through Milwaukee, Houston and Chicago. In that order.
If you’re not a US geography buff, here’s a map to illustrate that particular bit of travel:
Obviously, not the most well thought out thing. On top of the fact that the team was YoYo-ing from the midwest to the Gulf Coast and back, there were no off days on that trip.
The Padres also ended up playing four straight extra inning games in the middle of that run, and I think you could probably trace the start of the troubles of the 2021 season to that week-and-a-half long stretch in late May/early June.
That year, the Padres had three three-city trips (which are the most challenging)…and not one of them included an off day (MIL-HOU-CHC in May; WSH-ATL-MIA in July; and LA-SF-STL in Sept.).
Their combined record on those trips? 9-17 (not including a suspended game in Atlanta that they won two months later in San Diego).
In 2022, there were only a pair of three-city trips, both of which contained an off-day at some point. They went 6-2 and 7-2 on those trips.
Now, was the scheduling of those days off the only reason for the improvement? Of course not. Did it play a factor? Hard for me to think not.
Our current trip—the first of four three-city trips this year—includes an off day today in Chicago and on Friday in Mexico City (though it is technically a “workout day” at the stadium for the teams). In May, the team will go from DC to New York to Miami with off days in both Washington and Miami. In July, the Pads run through Philly, Toronto and Detroit with an off day in TO; and Houston, LA and Oakland in September with a day off in the Bay Area.
In terms of the immediate future, the team will have five off days in May, and, after the tough stretch to start this season, I would expect better times ahead. Is the timing of off days the primary predictor of success? No. But I really think they matter.1
Many Fans in the Desert
Have to take a moment to acknowledge the sheer volume of Padres fans who were at Chase Field this weekend. On Thursday for Fernando’s return, there truly seemed to be more Padre fans than Diamondback fans in the building. It was more even the rest of the weekend, but really neat to see and hear the folks who made the drive or flight out to the desert for what was a memorable few days.
On the Other Side of the Weather Spectrum…
Not a complaint, btw. Just pretty wild.
Per the AccuJesse 5000™️, the weather should be good enough for this series. Will get progressively (and slightly) warmer as the week goes on, but will certainly need to bundle up, especially for the night games tomorrow and Wednesday.
Sweeper Mania
If you’ve paid extra close attention this year, you may have noticed the word “sweeper” is, well, sweeping across Major League Baseball.
What is a sweeper? In short, it’s a slider. But of course this is baseball and nothing is ever handled in short.
Could I explain what makes a sweeper a sweeper? Sure. In short, it’s a slider that is very horizontal and is generally good at inducing weak contact, as opposed to a traditional slider that has some downward break and is good for getting swing-and-miss. But again…this is baseball…we don’t so short.
So let me turn things over to my buddy Mike Petriello of MLB dot com, who has a very enlightening piece on the sweeper that is very much worth your time. Enjoy!
Couple More Links
Some other really good stuff written the last few days, so please allow me to share:
Dennis Lin of The Athletic with a very nice story about Joe Musgrove opening up a gym with his trainer, Jono Green. Not that we don’t all know all about Joe and his work ethic by now, but these are some pretty incredible details:
By his own estimation, Musgrove has spent more than $100,000 installing a gym and various pieces of recovery equipment — including an $18,000 cold tub — in his San Diego home. By comparison, he skimps on such things as shoes and clothes, preferring to invest in himself. After fracturing his left big toe in late February, he lay in a hyperbaric chamber for hours each week, hoping to accelerate the healing process.
The story is very much worth your time, as Musgrove and Green are opening the facility as part of a commitment to helping the next generation of athletes take care of themselves.
Annie Heilbrunn sat down with Padres DH Nelson Cruz for a Q&A that is exceptional. The story about Nelson working with the Rangers Foundation to purchase a fire truck and ambulance for his hometown in the Dominican Republic (which had neither) is pretty remarkable.
A Q and an A
With all my rambling earlier about scheduling, a travel question seemed fitting. This one comes from Jesse M (no relation) and is a very common query from fans. Edited for length, etc.
Q: Do you and Tony (and Don and Mud) always get to fly with the team? Do you get to interact with players during travel? And then finally, do you get to stay in the same hotels as the team?
A: Yes, we are very fortunate that we all have seats on the team’s charter flight. This is standard for broadcasters in baseball. There just wouldn’t be any way for us to get to all the games if we had to fly commercial with flight schedules, delays, etc.
In terms of socializing, we pretty much do our own thing. There are obviously a fair number of non-players on the plane, too, when you consider the coaches, staff, front office folks, and others. There are a lot of people who make this whole thing happen, many of whom are way out of the public eye. Generally Don and I sit next to one another, Tony is across the aisle from me and Mud sits behind us.
And yes, we’re in the same hotel as the players. There are buses that bring everyone to the ballpark on game days, so it’s nice and easy…we just pop downstairs when it’s time, and away we go.
I know I’ve written about him before and I know I’ll do so again, but TJ Lasita is the man who oversees all of our travel/transportation and I literally cannot imagine there’s ever been anyone on the planet who does it as well as he does it. It’s laughable how smooth he makes everything for all of us. I could never write enough nice things about him as a professional and as a human being.
I think that’s all for now…thanks again to everyone for all the kind words about the newsletter. Please feel free to send it to friends and family…it’s free now and always will be. Enjoy the off day and we’ll talk to you tomorrow night from Wrigley!
Apologies for this very nitty-gritty look at something I’m guessing most of you don’t find that interesting. Unfortunately for you, this is an area of extreme interest for me. Thanks for hanging in.